Warning: Panama Is The Key - This Is Why

Warning.

There's a lot of chatter right now about Trump's statements and mounting desire to invade Panama to take possession of the shipping canal. There's a reason why the canal is administered by an internationally neutral country - so as to not allow the canal to be hijacked for political or ideological reasons.

We've seen NO EVIDENCE that the canal is being "administered by China" as Trump has claimed on several occasions, or that the USA is being "unfairly treated" by Panama in the administration of the canal as an international trade channel. So why does Trump insist he wants the Panama Canal? He's said he wants Greenland and Canada too - but why all this belligerence? And why specifically Panama?

Panama is a tiny country compared to the USA several countries to the north of it.

It has no standing military, and has not since 1990 - a tiny volunteer force acts as a national security apparatus, consisting at present of 28,000 people, including the national police element.

Panama by no means represents any kind of threat to the USA, which is a behemoth in comparison - having (as of 2024 figures) 1.4 million active-duty personnel alone. Now, I could provide a comprehensive list of just how large, impressive and better equipped the USA's armed forces are, but it would be entirely superfluous - it would be like comparing masses between an elephant and a fly.

Should he give the order to invade Panama, he could do so without much risk of damage or loss to the USA's armed forces. 

Some of you are thinking the UN and NATO wouldn't stand for that - but bear in mind these organizations were established under the auspices of the USA, and while NATO has been operating its own operations without US direct involvement, particularly in the area related to Ukraine and Russia during the past few years, the US still holds a lot of influence in both organizations.

It holds all the power within the UN, for example - which is perhaps the main reason why the UN is often viewed with disfavor by many countries who have been exploited by the USA as a neo-colonial power. People aren't stupid - they know whose hand is inside the blue glove of the UN.

The US holds the power to veto any resolution the UN security council makes - which if you really think about it, is really a bizarre arrangement for a council that is supposed to have been (or was perceived as) a council of equal nations. Basically, over the past 70 years or so, the UN has had to operate in line with the US's vision, direction and political will - and if it stepped out of line, the US applied pressure as required, and used its veto power. This also transpired all the way through the nuclear and communist hysteria that pervaded the entirety of the Cold War.

The US also contributes (or at least, has until now) the largest amount of financial support to keep the UN running. Even if you take into consideration that other countries and military powers (like the EU) also hold strong influence in the UN, the organization is and has always been historically speaking, overwhelmingly a clubhouse of US allies who found themselves being herded and cajoled into supporting whatever the prevailing US narrative is at any particular time. Of course, there's always been a lot of public pressure from US allies to hold the US to the ideals and goals it claimed to stand by - especially in terms of human rights culture in the late 20th century and early 21st. 

I doubt public perception holds much sway in dictating Trump's actions. He's already withdrawn the USA from the Paris Climate Agreement AND the World Health Organization - a decision which has already thrown the WHO and the hundreds of countries that rely on it to prepare responses for international health disasters like COVID and the rising incidence of bird flu, ebola and other dread diseases. Of course, this coincides with the rise of anti-science crackpots and anti-vaxxer nuts in the US right wing within not just top US health structures, but most government health structures across the board. They don't believe in pandemics, or in formulating co-ordinated responses to pandemics, or in scientifically proven countermeasures to prevent or suppress them, and they're willing to sacrifice millions of lives on the altar of their hubris. But that's just one example of Trump's ambitions - there's still plenty more that will follow.

Trump and the GOP have placed the USA firmly on a path that echoes that followed by Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party in the 1930s. What it took Hitler several months to achieve after rising to power in 1933, it has taken Trump just eleven days so far. Not only has he instituted policies that have destroyed civil rights gains and protections for persecuted minorities including LGBT people (specifically the transgender component, and worked actively to erase transgender people's existence virtually overnight), people of color and people with disabilities - and most prominently, immigrants of all kinds - both legal and illegal. Even US citizens, including native Americans, have found themselves being arrested and detained by Trump's ICE thugs, although details of whether these number among people being deported is not clear at this time.

Bearing all this in mind, I believe this is more than likely the actual reason why Trump has stated he wants to extricate the US from NATO - because of the perceived opposition to everything he did in his first term, everything has been doing so far in his second term - and everything he still will do.

You see, NATO has largely operated with the US contributing the largest portion of the financial, equipment and manpower pie. Were the US to withdraw from the alliance - or become the focus of a NATO reaction towards the US invasion of Panama (or any other country), the rest of NATO would find themselves operating under significantly reduced capability. 

It's unlikely that Trump would view any actions by NATO to be a major threat to the overall strength of the USA - but it's likely that he could portray any perceived opposition towards the ambitions of the USA under Trump as a threat with the support of a media which (as of now) is already beginning to resemble a state media run along authoritarian lines - more like that of Russia than the USA we knew until only yesterday. The fact that, as I'm typing this with lingering disbelief, I'm not even speaking metaphorically - is both surreal and bizarre to me.

Coming back to the UN, with the USA holding veto power, let's take an example: in 2024 the United States exercised its veto power at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on several occasions, primarily related to resolutions concerning the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The veto drew significant criticism from various nations and advocacy groups, highlighting tensions between US. foreign policy and international calls for humanitarian action in Gaza. The US was the only country to oppose this resolution, with all other 14 UNSC members voting in favor, but their will carried the day.

It's for reasons like this I don't think the UN would be a very effective mechanism for the international community to take any sort of direct action against the USA for invading Panama, or for violating tenets of international human rights law, or for "tariffing the hell outta" the rest of the world - which are also UN members. The only way I think the UN could act against the USA effectively - and still continue to exist intact (more-or-less) - would be if its constitution were amended to strip the USA of its veto rights, or if that right were actively usurped, or ignored. This would take an extraordinary sequence of events, and would require the agreement of a majority of member states. But that scenario comes with many other problems and issues of its own; in fact, it may result in such chaos and dissent, that the organization my splinter into factions, or cease to exist altogether.

Nevertheless, since the weeks leading up to his inauguration - and in the past days since taking office, Trump has been egging his supporters on with saber-rattling and jingoistic bullshit - to support a military action against this tiny nation - with the stated purpose of taking away the Panama Canal.

If the USA does take the canal, on the pretext that "it is controlled by China" what will happen? Bear in mind that Trump has already started a trade war between the USA and the rest of the world - INCLUDING the US's own - now increasingly former - allies. Trump is clearly not bothered by what the rest of the world thinks of the USA, or of whatever he does next. In the presidency, Trump - an emboldened narcissist and pathological liar - has found a vehicle for his ambitions, his ego, his pettiness - and a means to slake his desire for revenge against those who have criticized and even laughed at him. What will Trump DO with the Panama Canal, should the USA wrest it from its rightful owners?

He will turn it to his advantage of course - and (to paraphrase the man himself) he'd monetize the shit out of it. The US would charge extortion fees for shipping to pass through the canal - both US shipping and shipping between other countries, especially to and from countries he views as enemies of his own ambitions, and even deny passage through the canal altogether. If you want to use the canal, your country will have to pay the US for the privilege - the US could leverage access to the canal to its advantage financially. Incorporated and placed on the NYSE for example, it could make Trump and his cronies even more obscenely wealthy and powerful than they are already, with influence and power over the rest of the world's trade to boot. If your country falls foul of Trump's ire, you'd pay more - or forget about it - your ships and trade will have to travel the long way round.

Of course, the international community is unlikely to take kindly to a forced takeover and hijacking of the Panama canal, and this could even escalate an already troublesome trade war into something a touch warmer.

Although just how far they would be willing to commit to taking on the might of the US military, who in addition to being the worlds largets and most powerful, is still a nuclear power - even with a madman at the helm. The nearest non-military sort of action which I believe other countries and power-blocs like the EU, AU, BRICS etc. might bring to bear, would be in the form of sanctions, boycotts, and an escalation of the "tariff war" started by Trump himself. Everyone stands to lose from the USA's shamble down the path to oligarchal dictatorship, but it has to be pointed out, none more so than the people of the USA themselves. If the US puts unreasonable tariffs on a dozen countries supplying vital resources to their own economy, they will too be on the receiving end of a dozen retaliatory tariffs. 25% in retaliatory tariffs works out to 50% in cumulative effect. Rather than "tariffing the hell outta" other countries, he's going to tariff the fuck out of Americans, who mostly exist from paycheck to paycheck. But since these tariffs paid by the USA's people and businesses themselves to the US government, he won't mind one bit. Taken into combination with everything else happening in the US right now under his direction - turning the country into an authoritarian state, oligarchy and white supremacist theonomic human-rights vaccuum, this would not only make the USA a pariah state, but would realize Trump and the GOP's stated goals to isolate themselves from the rest of the world - politically, economically and socially. Trump's ambition is to be viewed globally as the sort of strong-man dictators like Putin, Stalin and the like have historically portrayed themselves to be; in control of everything that happens within the borders of their nation, strong, confident, capable, intelligent and an expert in every subject - but as he's demonstrated for most of his lifetime, he is none of those things. However, he is a very sly, dangerous individual who has found his support base, who give him what he craves most: adoration, obedience, acceptance, and reassurance that he's the genius he truly believes he is. To advance this horrific plan to the next level, the USA needs a credible threat that can be turned towards giving Trump emergency powers. So far, countries like Canada, Mexico and Denmark have acted with restraint and caution in spite of the incredibly insulting, aggressive behavior of the USA towards them under Trump, and in the case of Mexico, Colombia and others wrt to the humiliating and debasing way in which deportees have been dumped on them - bewildered clusters of demoralized human beings bound hand and foot with leg-irons as though they were serial killers or drug cartel thugs.

These countries won't likely give Trump the excuse he seems to be looking for, to go to war against someone, anyone, to provide the excuse Trump and the GOP really want, to install him (and their party) in as permanent a position of power as they can.

What happens if nobody gives him the excuse he seems to be provoking and looking for? Well, I'm fairly certain that if no country provides him with the pretext he craves to declare war "America under threat!" etc. within the next few weeks, some manufactured incident will arise and be used to that end. It wouldn't be the first time that sort of thing was used by warmongers with political ambitions to spark off wars - history is littered with examples: Japan in Manchuria, Germany in Sudetenland to name just two that immediately spring to mind. And Trump may yet still put the considerable power at his disposal towards expanding US territory anyway, in which case Panama and Greenland could be in considerable jeopardy, and perhaps to a lesser degree, Canada.

But, in the heavier gravity environment of sober thought and under the somewhat monochromatic shade of reality, regardless of what form this catalyst will take - be it a brief, low-risk war, or some form of natural disaster like a bird-flu pandemic that would allow similar presidential powers amid extensive and harsh lockdowns and restrictions, he needs one - and I've no doubt he will choose one sooner rather than later.

There's more to this than territorial ambitions, or profiting from hijacking the Panama Canal. As usual, there's always more to the story. If (or when) the USA strikes against Panama (or anywhere else), you need to look inward - not just at what the US will do in terms of the country on the receiving end, but rather at what Trump will do within the USA, using that action as a cover and means of enabling the cementing of his ideals.

In addition to all of the above aspects to what is already a complex scenario that reminds me of a bad day in a mirror-maze, there's yet another more sinister reason why Trump might declare war (ANY war, and not necessarily against Panama - and even as one-sided as any war of that sort could be):

Formally declaring a war with another nation gives the president of the USA the emergency powers he seeks to sweep any internal resistance away, and to also imprison anyone he wants on the mere suspicion of sabotage, espionage or dissent. He would essentially become independent of Congress and the Senate, with the capacity to direct military operations, set objectives, and act against any perceived resistance with military authority - and without having to defer to anyone else's judgement.

Think martial law - think what the US did to Asian-Americans, and Japanese-Americans in particular, during WW2, rounding them up and imprisoning them in inhumane concentration camps for the entire duration of the war, dispossessing them, stripping them of their human rights and dignity, and in many cases, their lives. In my view, embroiling the USA in war with a tiny flyspeck of a country like Panama is just a pretext to fulfill Trump's stated goals to expand US territory and would achieve economic and military domination over world sea trade routes - and is the vehicle that will allow him to conduct all the human rights violations he wants to, behind closed doors. How would this be "behind closed doors"?

Simultaneously to all the governmental changes Trump is making, he's now also cutting off non-sympathetic news media from any and all access to the White House and communications with government, reserving that privilege for sympathetic right-wing media, including conspiracy-theory podcasters and supporters without any actual prior media credentials. Media coverage will now proceed along partisan political lines, with right-wing narratives dominating news media from the USA. Fortunately, other nations around the world aren't wholly dependent on US media or even official narratives to form a more accurate picture of what is unfolding in the USA at present - they have their own sources and ways of gathering intelligence. Believe me, no matter how bizarre things look to us out here, I'm sure the picture those at the top of our respective food-chains is a lot sharper, nastier and worrying. Simultaneously to Trump's unconstitutional partisan favoring of crony-media, which constitutes sabotage of enshrined press freedoms and access to information, he's also embarked on a process of rapidly paralyzing federal law enforcement agencies. Just this morning I awoke to the news that he's busy effectively gutting and filleting the FBI - having just removed thousands of FBI agents who participated in the investigations against himself and against January 6 2020 rioters in the last 4 years, demanding that all evidence and files from these investigations be surrendered to Trump officials - effectively obliterating any chance that these cases could be continued against himself in future.

These people, if they are to be replaced, will be replaced by yes-men loyal to Trump and the message of the GOP. The message of that alone is crystal clear: the rule of impartial, independent law in the USA has ended. We've just watched it happen. Within the first NINE DAYS of his second term alone, we saw the US officially designate its first concentration camp for 30,000 people at Guantanamo Bay - where Trump has indicated, he will send "the worst" of those he deems "illegals" - without trial, without any clear outcome, and most notably, without any supervision - from where people sent there can easily be made to disappear with the collusion of Trump appointees and yes-men.

This past week I saw a video showing an old man who was over 100 years old, dressed in his old US Marines uniform, openly weeping at the shit-show the country he went to war against Nazism and genocide for, has turned into. Having known elderly relatives who also fought in the allied forces during that war, this was heart-breaking.

The blistering pace that this nightmarish scenario is proceding at - within the FIRST TWO WEEKS of his new term - indicates it was clearly part of the GOP's plan all along. Project 2025. Once again, I tried to warn you - we all did. You wouldn't listen. You didn't take any of this seriously - and it seems you still aren't. You're still bickering about ifs, whats and maybes relating to the election held last year - and placing your hopes in a new Democratic Party chair that offers you nothing new - and I've just watched a video showing their new leader defend the party accepting funds from "good billionaires" and not "bad billionaires" - when there's no such thing.

Pandering to, and allowing billionaires and corporations to buy your politicians is what got you into this mess in the first place. You are now here - and so, by extended implication of being intimately tied to your economy, your currency and your social influence - are we. How fucked are you? If I said "totally", I'd sound over-dramatic, wouldn't I? I'd say you're more fucked now as a country than you were on the cusp of your ubiquitous Civil War that many around the world - including me - are sick and tired of hearing about. Especially because you've made an institution of hero-worshiping a bunch of traitors who tried to overthrow the United States 160 years ago, and whose descendants and successors have finally succeeded in doing so. Would you have believed, just 11 days ago that you - or someone you know - might be dragged away by ICE thugs on suspicion of being in the country illegally based on skin color, or speaking Spanish in public, alone? Thinking the US would wage a trade war against its own allies like Canada and Mexico - and threaten acts of war against a flyspeck like Panama by threatening to militarily take possession of an economic landmark of international strategic importance? And yet, here we are. I'm warning you again now, while you sit around, shocked into inaction, or wrap yourselves in internal party politics, bickering and joking about all this - while your friends, neighbors and co-workers lose their jobs for being "DEI", or because of their skin-tone being more on the brown side disappear in ICE raids - and while any avenues of structured, traditional resistance within federal and state bodies are suddenly ripped away in a catestrophic cascade, and are replaced with cronies who will do whatever their master tells them to. You're still looking for some legal - or paralegal way to obstruct the fascist takeover of your government - federal, state and local - and pretty soon you're going to realize it's like trying to stop a raging inferno with a water pistol. Have there been any protests yet? Any protests against this shit? Protests against Trump taking away medicare? Compromising their social security? Pushing up their egg prices? Deporting their relatives? Taking a wrecking ball to all the fundamentals and underpinnings of democratic government before their very eyes? Hijacking your democracy and installing a techbro oligarchal dictatorship? I haven't seen any signs of a single one. What are you waiting for? When will you act? Are you going to seriously sit there and wait hopefully for "next time"? If you're thinking there's going to be a next time, you're deluding yourselves. Someone who moves heaven and earth to install themselves in an authoritarian position does not relinquish that power easily, nor do they enter into such an enterprise lightly or without making adequate preparations.

That's why this is proceding at such a blistering pace; to overwhelm federal structures and tie them up in legal knots to prevent them from taking action, then remove key players and replace them with sympathizers who will support oppressive new policies - as the people scramble about, lost and confused, trying to find their feet in the path of the tsunami as it sweeps over them.

This is a blitzkrieg - the enemy bombers are already overhead, and you haven't even got a single flak-gun handy. You still think you have a functioning democracy. You don't.

This is what dictatorship looks like.

The question the rest of the world awaits the answer to is: what are you going to do about it?